A new poll from the Des Moines Register/Mediacom shows Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris leading Republican candidate Donald Trump in Iowa by 47% to 44%, just days before the election. Although the lead falls within the poll’s margin of error of 3.4%, this result represents a surprising 7-point shift in favor of Harris since September. Political experts and observers were taken aback by these findings, as Iowa, a state Trump easily won in both 2016 and 2020, was not anticipated to swing in Harris’s favor.
J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., the highly regarded polling firm responsible for the survey, commented on the unexpected result, saying, “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming. She has clearly leaped into a leading position.” The survey, conducted from Monday through Thursday, included 808 likely voters, giving weight to the results among political strategists and campaigns.
The poll indicates Harris’s edge is largely driven by female voters, particularly older and politically independent women. According to Selzer, “Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors that are explaining these numbers.” This demographic support has played a critical role in propelling Harris ahead in Iowa, where neither she nor Trump has campaigned significantly since the primaries.
In contrast to this poll, an Emerson College poll released the same day shows a different picture, with Trump leading Harris by 53% to 43%. The Trump campaign quickly released a memo dismissing the Des Moines Register poll as an “outlier,” stating that the Emerson poll is a more accurate reflection of the Iowa electorate.
Adding another layer of complexity, 3% of likely voters in Iowa still support independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who recently exited the race and endorsed Trump. The poll shift is notable given Iowa’s recent voting history, with Trump winning the state by 8 points in 2020 and by 9 points in 2016.
With Election Day just around the corner, Harris’s apparent surge underscores the volatile nature of the current political landscape, especially in states that were previously considered securely Republican.