Ten years after the Paris Agreement united world leaders around a shared goal of curbing global warming, the planet remains on a dangerous path — warming faster than efforts to cut carbon emissions can keep up.
When the accord was signed in 2015, nations pledged to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Since then, the world has made progress — projections of future warming have dropped by about 1°C — yet the pace of climate action still trails far behind the intensifying damage from rising heat.
The planet’s temperature has climbed 0.46°C in the past decade, one of the steepest increases on record, according to Copernicus climate data. Each year since 2015 has been hotter than the year of the agreement. From deadly heat waves in India, Europe, and North America to wildfires in Hawaii and floods in Pakistan and China, the signs of accelerating climate disruption are everywhere.
Since 2015, the world has lost more than 7 trillion tons of ice from glaciers and polar sheets, while sea levels have risen 40 millimeters (1.6 inches) — enough to fill 30 Lake Eries. Even the Amazon rainforest, once a key carbon sink, has begun emitting more greenhouse gases than it absorbs due to deforestation.
Still, there are reasons for cautious optimism. Renewable energy now dominates new electricity capacity, accounting for 74% of growth in global power generation last year, and electric vehicle sales have surged from 500,000 in 2015 to 17 million in 2024.
However, greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, with methane levels up 5.2% and carbon dioxide up 5.8% since 2015, driven largely by developing economies. According to the Global Carbon Project, China’s emissions have grown 15.5% and India’s 26.7%, while those of the U.S. and EU have declined by about 7%.
As delegates gather this week in Belem, Brazil, for COP30, scientists and diplomats agree that while the Paris Agreement laid the right foundation, the world has failed to stay on course.
“The Paris Agreement has underperformed,” said Joanna Depledge of the University of Cambridge. “You can’t say it’s failed — but you can’t say it’s succeeded either.”