ASML, the world’s leading chip equipment manufacturer, has announced it will stop publishing new order bookings, a key metric closely watched by investors. The company argues that the figure is too inconsistent and causes excessive volatility in its stock price.
Instead, ASML believes its own forecasts—based on discussions with chipmakers about their capacity expansion plans—offer a more reliable indicator of future performance. The company’s circuit-printing machinery plays a critical role in chip manufacturing, but orders can take six to 18 months to fulfill, making quarterly booking figures difficult to interpret.
“The swing factor is significant,” said Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen, explaining the move.
The decision, announced on Wednesday, came as ASML’s stock jumped 7% following better-than-expected fourth-quarter bookings of €7.1 billion ($7.4 billion), a sharp increase from the €2.6 billion recorded in Q3. The fluctuation was likely driven by timing of orders from TSMC, which recently unveiled a $38 billion capital expenditure plan for 2025.
While analysts acknowledge the downside of losing insight into short-term order trends, they largely understand ASML’s reasoning.
“There is downside for investors, as we lose visibility on average bookings and backlog confidence,” said Sara Russo of Bernstein. However, she agreed that a single quarter’s bookings are not the best measure of long-term business health.
Michael Roeg of Degroof Petercam added that capital expenditure announcements from major clients such as TSMC, Intel, and Samsung already provide sufficient indicators of future demand.
Despite market fluctuations, Dassen emphasized that ASML’s full-year sales and margins remained aligned with its January 2024 forecasts.
“If you put all those quarters together, you see it wasn’t too shabby, was it?” he remarked.