The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to begin its rate-cutting cycle with a slower approach than in previous decades, according to a recent report by Fitch Ratings. The rating agency projects that the central bank will begin easing at its September policy meeting, starting with a 25-basis-point cut, followed by another in December. Further gradual cuts are expected through 2025 and 2026, totaling 250 basis points over 25 months, much slower than the historical median of 470 basis points over eight months.
Inflation Still a Concern
Fitch emphasized that inflation remains a concern, particularly core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices. While inflation dropped to its lowest since February 2021, standing at 2.5% year-on-year in August, it remains above the Fed’s 2% target. The report points out that the recent decline in core inflation was primarily due to falling automobile prices, which may not be sustainable.
The Fed’s cautious approach is also driven by the inflation challenges it faced over the past few years, highlighting gaps in understanding the drivers of inflation. With core CPI still elevated at 3.2% on an annual basis, Fitch expects the Fed to proceed slowly with rate cuts to avoid reigniting inflationary pressures.
Global Monetary Policy Divergence
While the Fed is expected to proceed with slow easing, other global central banks are taking different approaches. In China, Fitch foresees continued rate cuts by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) as deflationary pressures deepen. The PBOC’s recent cuts and declining core inflation, now at 0.3%, signal further easing to combat economic challenges. Fitch predicts China’s inflation to drop to 0.5% in 2024, with additional rate cuts through 2025.
Conversely, Japan’s central bank is adopting a more hawkish stance. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has aggressively raised rates, reflecting its growing confidence that inflation is firmly entrenched. Core inflation in Japan has been above the BOJ’s target for 23 months, supported by ongoing wage growth. Fitch expects the BOJ’s policy rate to reach 0.5% by the end of 2024, rising to 1% by 2026, a shift that could have broader global economic impacts.