Global emissions from fossil fuels are projected to reach unprecedented levels this year, with an estimated 37.4 billion metric tons of planet-heating pollution—an increase of 0.8% from 2023—dashing expectations that 2024 would mark a decline. The rise, reported by the Global Carbon Project, indicates continued increases in emissions from coal, oil, and gas, despite mounting evidence of the need for rapid climate action.
This troubling news coincides with the COP29 UN climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, where leaders face growing anxiety over potential shifts in global climate policy under a possible second Trump administration. The urgency for climate action is reinforced by 2024’s extreme weather, with record-breaking temperatures and a series of natural disasters including hurricanes, floods, and severe droughts.
Pierre Friedlingstein, climate professor at the University of Exeter and lead author of the report, highlighted the continuing growth of fossil fuel emissions as “increasingly dramatic” given the escalating impacts of climate change.
Emissions from Deforestation and Land Use Also Rising In addition to fossil fuels, emissions linked to land-use changes, such as deforestation, are projected to rise due to severe droughts and wildfires this year. Combined, global climate pollution is anticipated to reach 41.6 billion metric tons in 2024, up from 40.6 billion metric tons in 2023. While this increase may seem modest, it places the world further off track in reducing emissions enough to stabilize global warming.
The increase contrasts with some regional progress. Emissions in the U.S. and Europe are expected to decrease, and China’s emissions growth appears to be slowing and may even decline this year. However, these reductions are counterbalanced by rising emissions in other parts of the world, particularly in India.
1.5-Degree Threshold Threatened To limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, in line with the Paris climate agreement, fossil fuel emissions need to be cut roughly in half by 2030. Scientists warn that exceeding this threshold could trigger irreversible climate tipping points and endanger human and ecological resilience. Although some temporary 12-month warming periods have already surpassed this critical level, scientists are most concerned about the risk of prolonged warming beyond 1.5 degrees, which could be reached within six years at current emission rates.
Carbon Removal Efforts Lagging Despite interest in carbon removal technologies, the report finds that these technologies currently capture only a minuscule fraction of emissions. According to Friedlingstein, only rapid and substantial reductions in fossil fuel emissions will prevent catastrophic climate consequences. He urged world leaders at COP29 to implement immediate, far-reaching measures to curb emissions.